Is China all set to overtake US in advanced technologies?

Many recent studies indicate that China leads US in global competition for some key emerging technologies. There are others who put it that “No. China’s is not surpassing America in technology, but it is America that is getting left behind.” Since 1979 China has not fought a war. The US is “the most warlike nation in the history of the world”. As the self-appointed global policeman, US has been busy at wars for many decades and spending trillions of dollars. China has been utilising the time and money in developing technologies and military power. Where do the two stand?

World Intellectual Property Indicators 2023

The report on World Intellectual Property (IP) Indicators 2023, indicates that innovators around the world submitted a record high of nearly 3.5 million patent applications in 2022. IP applications worldwide were 3,457,400 and China had 1,619,268 which was 46.8 per cent of the global figures. The US at 594,340 had 17.2 per cent, and Japan with 289,530 had 8.4 per cent. China’s patent office granted 14.7 per cent more patents in 2022 than in 2021, marking a third consecutive year of double-digit growth. Also as in 2022, China had the highest number of patents in force, accounting for approximately a quarter of the world total. The stock of pending applications at China’s patent office nearly doubled, growing from around 1.3 million in 2021 to approximately 2.6 million in 2022. China led in all categories including utility models, trademarks applications, and industrial designs applications.

What is notable is the broad geographical base of this growth. Among the top five offices, patent applications at both the IP office of China and the European Patent Office outstripped the global average. The US returned to growth for the first time since the pandemic. Among the top 20 global IP offices, there were double-digit increases at the offices of South Africa, India and Indonesia. For India, this is the sixth year of growth in a row, with patent filings surging by a quarter in 2022, the fastest increase since 2005. Notable rises were also recorded at the offices of Algeria, Colombia, Türkiye and Saudi Arabia.

China leads US in key emerging technologies

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), a security think tank, study indicates that China has a “significant lead” in 37 out of 44 critical and emerging technologies. ASPI tracked the most-cited scientific papers, which it said are the most likely to result in patents. The Western democracies are getting left behind in research output, in defence, space, energy and biotechnology. In some fields, all of the world’s top 10 research institutions are based in China. China has very clear lead in high-impact research especially under government programs.

Interestingly, the study, funded by the US State Department, found the US was often second-ranked, although it led global research in high-performance computing, quantum computing, small satellites and vaccines. The report suggest greater collaboration between democratic nations to create secure supply chains and rapidly pursue strategic critical technologies.

The Chinese Academy of Sciences, a government research body, ranked first or second in most of the 44 technologies tracked, which spanned defence, space, robotics, energy, the environment, biotechnology, artificial intelligence (AI), advanced materials and quantum technology.

Over the past five years, China generated 48.49 percent of the world’s high-impact research papers especially in aero- engines, and hypersonic technology, areas that it considers important for its defence. China is pushing greatly ahead in photonic sensors and quantum communications. China could soon have monopoly in many fields including synthetic biology, where it produces one-third of all research, as well as electric batteries, 5G, and Nano-manufacturing.

China’s surprise breakthrough in hypersonic missiles in 2021 could have been identified earlier if the world had tried to monitor China’s advanced research.

China’s technology approach

West continues to claim that Chinese diaspora has been a significant contributor, and China’s research is greatly backed by knowledge gained overseas. While that may be true, but China has been spending huge amounts in backing academic research. A large number of students are enrolled in high-technology domains.

In the 1980s and 1990s, the Chinese government launched the “863 Plan” and the “Strategy for Rejuvenating the Country through Science and Education”, which greatly promoted China’s science and technological progress. The 863 program was funded and administered by the government to stimulate the development of advanced technologies in a wide range of fields so as to make China independent from paying for foreign technologies.

Later China’s “973 Program”, the National Basic Research Program was meant to achieve technology and strategic edge in various scientific fields and especially the development of the rare earth minerals industry.

The development of key strategic technologies plays a vital and consequential role. By 2049, China aims to emerge as a global leader in three strategic technologies, identified by President Xi Jinping as critical for China’s national rejuvenation: space, AI, and quantum communications and computing.

Rare earths and semi-conductors

Rare earth elements, a group of 17 metals—are used in defense technologies, including missiles, lasers, vehicle-mounted systems such as tanks, and military communications. They are also used in computers, televisions, and smartphones, along with various clean energy technologies.

At present China produces 60 percent of the world’s rare earths but processes nearly 90 percent, which means that it is importing rare earths from other countries and processing them. This has given China a near monopoly. The US has been aware of this vulnerability but has meaningfully acted only in the last few years. State-owned Chinese enterprises are acquiring lithium, cobalt, nickel and other metal deposits around the world to create the basis for large-scale manufacturing of lithium batteries.

The Chinese semiconductor industry, including integrated circuit design and manufacturing, forms a major part of China’s information technology industry. China is currently the world’s largest semiconductor market in terms of consumption and represented 31.4 per cent of worldwide final sales or $180 billion out of $574 billion in 2022. US still makes billions in China chip sales. However, a large percentage are by multinational suppliers.

High-speed rail and solar energy

The US is lagging behind in high-speed rail and solar energy. Some blame it on US’s strong aviation and automobile industry and lobby. China needs to move 1.4 billion people, many of who cannot afford air travel. Global experience shows that high-speed rail is more convenient and comfortable than flying for travel distances within 800 kilometres. China’s aviation industry still depends on West. China also has little Oil and natural gas.

Similarly, the US is the world’s largest producer of fossil fuels and controls global energy markets. The only impetus for Americans to develop clean energy comes from environmental groups and political commitment. Lastly China’s decision make is more with Communist Party than lobbies.

Electric vehicles

The US was the innovator of electric vehicles (EV), and Tesla Inc. is the clear leader in this field. Yet among the top five EV companies two today are Chinese. Former US president Donald Trump had publicly opposed electric vehicles. Eight million EVs were sold in China in 2023. Comparatively, just 1.2 million were sold in the US.

Tesla has six gigafactories, four in US, one each in Germany and China. Tesla’s factory in Shanghai, China, builds Model 3 and Model Y cars and has a capacity to ship more than 7,50,000 cars annually. In 2023, the Shanghai factory produced half of the world’s Teslas. The efficiency of this factory is equal to the combined production capacity of Tesla’s other three factories.  Tesla also has a Supercharger Factory in Shanghai. In China, Tesla got regulatory approvals three times faster than in US. But production at the Shanghai factory is being cut as it faces competition from local EV companies like BYD. But currently, Tesla relies on Chinese companies for most of its batteries.

China accounts for 68% of the world’s high-speed charging stations which are run by state-owned enterprises which do not need to pursue profits. In China, electric vehicles are given priority for license approval.

6G Communications

6G (sixth-generation wireless) is the successor to 5G cellular technology. 6G networks will be able to use higher frequencies than 5G networks and provide substantially higher capacity and much lower latency. China has made significant strides in the telecommunications industry and is planning to become a global leader in 6G technology. China has already launched an experimental satellite to test terahertz signal transmission, a step toward 6G. It is projected to cement the long-awaited “Internet of Things” (IoT) future.

According to a joint survey conducted by Cyber Creative Institute and news media company Nikkei Asia, 40.3 percent of the 20,000 6G global patents belong to China. The US ranks second, with 35.2 percent of the filings. China is thus a strong contender for mastering 6G technologies before everyone else.

Space and military technologies

China has nearly caught up with US in space technologies and is fast increasing its numbers and capability in space. China is still about a decade behind the US in military and civil aviation technologies. China just inducted the third aircraft-carrier, US has 12 supercarriers. China continues to struggle with aeroengines.

Higher education

Chinese universities charge about $1000 per year and even at reduced income levels, is highly affordable. Public universities in the US charge $12,000 to $30,000 per year. Percent of college students in science-engineering-technology is 40 percent in China versus 15 per cent in US. Percent of foreign students in US University technology-science-engineering graduate programs is 75 per cent.

US-China technology competition

The scale and speed of China’s recent technological advancements have raised concerns in the West. For US, other than economic and security concerns, there are fear that rise of an autocratic closed society would impact on liberal values and global good governance. As the Chinese technology market increasingly decouples from those of the US and the West, China could start setting divergent norms and standards thus dividing the global technology segment that was hitherto dominated by American-set standards.

China’s technological investments are guided by desire to expand international influence and enhancing military capabilities. China’s cost of research and production remains lower and thus its products can compete with advantage in underdeveloped and emerging markets.

US wants to hold on to its leading position, but does not have an autocratic government push, and depends more on private enterprise innovation. The US Department of Defence (DOD) needs to get its act right and drive innovations through focused research and funding.

What options must US adopt are varied and complex. Sustaining the status quo is not considered tenable. The US has begun taking measures to guard sensitive technology leakages. America has ability to develop democratic coalitions to accelerate innovations.

Where does China score over US

Larger population, smart people, lesser salaries, are some of the advantages China has. Interestingly, unlike US, China pays much more to engineers than doctors and lawyers. The smartest Chinese students go into engineering. China has a strong technology interested in leadership. The Chinese Science Academy and Chinese Engineering Academy report directly to the President of China and advise him when necessary. China has been building the equivalent of almost one university per week. They dominated the graduate market. China produced 4.7 million STEM graduates a year.

Nearly two-thirds of Silicon Valley tech workers are first-generation, that means they are immigrants. China graduates 8 times more STEM students than the US, India 4 times, and Russia, with half US population, graduates as many as US. Policies to restrict Chinese students have still to take effect. The percent of GDP from direct manufacturing is 18 per cent in US versus 40 per cent in China.

China is ahead of the US in producing renewable energy, has the World’s fastest supercomputer (Tianhe-2), and dominate in AI applications. China may have developed a quantum radar that can spot stealth planes.

Who is winning the tech competition?

The global impact and reach of American companies like NVIDIA, Amazon, Apple, OpenAI, Boeing, Lockheed, Microsoft, Meta, TSMC, Tesla and Google, shows clear US technological innovation advantage. Compare this to top Chinese tech companies Tencent, Huawei, Alibaba Group, Pinduoduo, Meituan, Baidu, BOE Technology and SMIC.

While China has a large number of AI scientific articles and patents, the US maintains a strong foothold in advanced AI developments. Clearly the US companies have much higher global presence and visibility.

Yes when it comes to the number of patents, academic publications, leading educational institutions, or multibillion-dollar companies, China is catching up or overtaking. The competition is a multidimensional and involves technological, economic, military and political elements. The us has a penchant for turning research into impactful, scalable innovations. Meanwhile, China’s advantage of younger and larger demography has also started withering.

China’s Continuity and Planning

China AND Chinese companies talk of decade’s ahead plans. Most American companies mostly look at 3 to 4 quarters ahead. Single party, China also has better continuity in policies. 2500 years later they still follow Confucius and Sun Tzu. For centuries, China has been the most populous, prosperous, advanced society. Chinese people think that last two centuries of British and American dominance has been an aberration.

Way ahead

The Chinese reform since 1978 rank as one of the most extraordinary economic transformation in history involving industrialization, marketization, urbanization, and globalization all occurring at the same time. There is that famous saying “God made this world and rest everything is made in China”. Also China does not have a competitive political party system.

For long, we have heard that “Made in China” stands for bad quality. That “Chinese steal technology.” Reality is that China produces different products for different markets. US made a mistake in 1980s to set up production in China and even shared technologies. China is known for using all means for intellectual property theft. Many countries are considering visa screening to limit illegal technology transfers and instead favour international collaboration with allies. Also put in place actions stop the illegal transfer of technology to China.

US has for long enjoyed being the sole superpower. It started taking its position for granted and gone into slumber. China is going to make that change. It is a wakeup call. In some ways, the competition between the two tech-giants is healthy for innovation. Multi-polar world has its own advantages.

The writer is former Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.